Yet another petrol price hike coming in June in South Africa

The June 2026 prediction

Current projections suggest a total increase of R1.80 to R2.20 per litre for Petrol, and potentially R2.50 to R3.00 per litre for diesel.

While the Basic Fuel Price (BFP) is seeing some relief as oil markets stabilise from their April peak, the primary driver for June is the National Treasury's decision to halve the fuel levy relief.

The three pillars of the June Price

The Tax Factor:

In April and May 2026, the South African government implemented an emergency R3.00/litre reduction in the General Fuel Levy to offset the price shock from the US-Iran conflict. However, Treasury has confirmed a phased re-entry of these taxes for June:

• Petrol: The relief drops from R3.00 to R1.50. This automatically adds R1.50/litre to the June price, regardless of what oil does.

• Diesel: The relief drops from R3.93 to R1.96. This adds R1.97/litre to the June price.

• Note: The remaining relief will be removed entirely on July 1, 2026, signalling another hike.

International oil & product prices

Global markets are currently in a volatile stabilisation phase. After Brent crude spiked to over $115/bbl in April 2026 due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, prices have eased toward the $100–$105/bbl range in May.

• Under-recovery: Because May's prices were set when oil was higher, there is a small over-recovery currently building (meaning international prices are lower than the current local price).

• The offset: This over-recovery (estimated at roughly 30–50 cents) will slightly dampen the blow of the tax hike but will not be enough to prevent a net increase.

The Rand/Dollar Exchange Rate

The Rand has shown surprising resilience despite the global risk-off sentiment.

• Current rate: Trading around R16.50/USD.

• Impact: This stability is preventing a total price catastrophe. If the Rand were to slip toward R17.50 (a risk if US interest rates remain high), the June hike could easily exceed R3.00/litre.

Snapshot (Inland 95 Petrol)