South African motorists are in for a substantial reprieve at the pumps this July, as plunging international oil prices look set to easily overpower the looming reinstatement of the final portion of the General Fuel Levy (GFL).
Earlier this year, the National Treasury implemented temporary tax relief of R1.50/l for petrol and R1.96/l for diesel. While the final 50% of that levy relief ends on July 1—adding those costs back into the base fuel pricing—the latest mid-to-late month data shows that global oil market shifts will more than make up for the tax hike.
Following the recent diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East, including the U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, global Brent crude has tumbled into the mid-$70 range. Combined with a relatively stable South African Rand hovering around R16.60 to the US Dollar, local fuel over-recoveries have reached multi-year highs.
Based on the Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) updated data tracking up to June 23, 2026, here are the revised net price changes expected at midnight on Wednesday, July 1:
Petrol 93: Expected decrease of ~R1.44 per litre
Petrol 95: Expected decrease of ~R1.40 per litre
Diesel 0.05%: Expected decrease of ~R2.61 per litre
Diesel 0.005%: Expected decrease of ~R3.01 per litre
Illuminating Paraffin: Expected decrease of ~R2.45 per litre
Final figures coming soon
While these figures look highly encouraging, they remain predictions until the final week of data is solidified. The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) will announce the official, finalised adjustments just before the turn of the month.
If the current trend holds, local logistics costs and general commuter expenses will receive a massive, much-needed cushion heading into the second half of the year.
