While petrol prices are pointing toward a moderate increase, diesel users are facing a massive potential jump of over R3.00 per litre as international market volatility continues to hit middle distillate fuels.
Estimated fuel price changes for September 2026
If the current under-recoveries hold through to the end of the month, here is how pump prices are projected to shift at midnight on Tuesday, 1 September 2026:
| Fuel grade | Projected adjustment | Estimated price (Inland) |
| Petrol 93 | 🔺 Increase of ~R0.40/l | ~R25.82/l |
| Petrol 95 | 🔺 Increase of ~R0.51/l | ~R26.09/l |
| Diesel 0.05% | 🔺 Increase of ~R3.11/l | ~R29.28/l |
| Diesel 0.005% | 🔺 Increase of ~R3.22/l | ~R29.92/l |
| Illum Paraffin | 🔺 Increase of ~R2.40/l | |
Note: These figures are based on early-month Central Energy Fund snapshot data. Final prices will be officially announced by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) shortly before coming into effect.
What is driving the increase?
1. Geopolitical tensions & oil volatility
International crude oil markets remain unsettled due to ongoing geopolitical risks in key global supply corridors. Friction surrounding major shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent crude back into the $81–$84 per barrel range.
2. Global diesel squeeze
The primary driver behind the extreme spike in diesel prices is a severe global shortage of middle distillates. Global refinery constraints and regional trade restrictions have dramatically tightened diesel supply in international markets, causing local diesel under-recovery to balloon.
3. A resilient Rand
The South African Rand has remained relatively stable around R16.20–R16.35 to the US Dollar. While currency strength has helped mitigate the impact on basic fuel import costs, it has not been sufficient to offset the spike in international refined product prices.
The bottom line
While petrol drivers will feel a mild to moderate squeeze, the severe hike in diesel prices will heavily impact freight, logistics, and agricultural sectors, which will inevitably filter through to broader consumer inflation.
The official final adjustments will be released by the DMPR during the final weekend of August before taking effect at midnight on Wednesday, 2 September 2026.
