July fuel price update: Can we expect some breathing room?

For months, the story of fuel prices in South Africa has been defined by global instability and emergency government intervention. To shield consumers from record-high costs, the National Treasury introduced a temporary reduction in the general fuel levy, which cut petrol by R3.00 per litre and diesel by up to R3.93 per litre at its peak.

(If your current vehicle is becoming a burden on your budget, it is worth exploring the best fuel-efficient petrol crossovers currently on the market.)

However, this support is nearing its end. Following a partial reversal of the relief in June, the government has confirmed that the temporary fuel levy relief will expire completely on 1 July 2026. From this date, the general fuel levy will return to its baseline rates of R4.10 per litre for petrol and R3.93 per litre for diesel. While this tax reintroduction puts upward pressure on prices, current market data suggests we may still see a net decrease at the pumps due to favourable global conditions.

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We've been sweating at the pumps the past few months; is there hope on the horizon?

Why the sudden change?

Two major factors have turned the tide over the last fortnight. Firstly, global oil prices have softened significantly. Brent Crude has pulled back from the volatile highs seen earlier this year, largely due to market stabilisation, which helps lower import costs.

Secondly, the rand has remained surprisingly resilient. Trading around R16.25 to the dollar, the local currency is performing well, which further lowers the cost of importing fuel. These forces have created a healthy "over-recovery"—a surplus that is currently large enough to absorb the full return of the fuel levy while still allowing for a net price reduction.

(See our guide to beating the South African fuel price.)

Is it too soon to celebrate? We reckon we should rather wait and see.

Tracking the rollercoaster

The following table provides a snapshot of inland retail and wholesale list prices for the past few months, including the forecast for July. Please note that while petrol retail prices are regulated and consistent across all stations in a zone, diesel and paraffin prices are wholesale list prices; the final retail price you pay for these may vary by service station.

What to expect at the pumps

While the official announcement from the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources will only come at the end of the month, the current data points to a massive, highly uneven relief package for road users:

• Petrol (93 and 95): Motorists can likely expect a decrease of just over R1.00 per litre. While the international data showed a massive over-recovery of R2.55, the return of the final R1.50 general fuel levy claws back a chunk of that victory, leaving us with a net drop of ~R1.05.

• Diesel: This is where the real celebration is. Diesel is showing a phenomenally strong international recovery, outperforming petrol by a mile. Even after swallowing its own heavy R1.97 fuel levy reintroduction, diesel users are on track for a staggering net price drop of between R2.30 and R2.60 per litre. If you are running a diesel fleet or a family SUV, July is going to offer a considerable sigh of relief at the pumps.

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The road ahead

It has been a rollercoaster year for anyone travelling by road in South Africa. While consecutive, record-shattering petrol hikes left everyday commuters bleeding cash, diesel users have managed to catch a completely separate, downward international wave. A net decrease of roughly R1.10 per litre for petrol is certainly not a magic fix for Mzansi's cost-of-living crisis, but it breaks a painful streak. For those running diesel fleets and agricultural machinery, the multi-rand drop is a massive, tangible win that should help keep broader consumer inflation in check as winter deepens.

A note on the outlook: We are reporting on current market data, but we cannot look into a crystal ball. These figures are estimates based on mid-month conditions. If oil prices or the exchange rate move against us in the final two weeks of the month, those numbers could shift. We will have to wait for the official announcement at the end of the month to know the final adjustment.

Sources: 

• Central Energy Fund (CEF)

• Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR)

• National Treasury (South Africa)

• Investec Economics

• BusinessTech