Fuel Price Shock Expected for South Africa in April 2026

The predictive model

To understand where we are going, we have to look at the two primary levers of the Basic Fuel Price (BFP): the international price of Brent Crude oil and the strength of the Rand against the US Dollar.

Geopolitics vs. fundamentals

While long-term forecasts for 2026 originally suggested oil would stabilise around $60/bbl due to oversupply, the current reality is much harsher. Following the escalation of conflict between the US and Iran in late February, Brent Crude has spiked to over $115/bbl. A bbl is the standard unit of measurement for oil, representing one barrel of liquid, measuring 42 gallons or around 149 litres.

• The impact: Every $1 increase in the price of oil typically adds roughly 25 to 30 cents per litre to the local pump price. With oil jumping from an average of $69 in March to over $115 now, the under-recovery (the amount the government is losing by not charging the true cost) is staggering.

The Rand’s slide

Oil is traded in Dollars. Even if oil stayed flat, a weak Rand makes every barrel more expensive for South Africa to import. In early March, the Rand slipped to R16.86/$1.

• The impact: The currency’s volatility is currently contributing to a significant portion of the expected hike. Economists estimate that for every 10-cent move in the exchange rate, the fuel price shifts by about 6 to 10 cents per litre.

The April double-whammy

April is historically the month when the National Treasury implements its annual adjustments to fuel levies. For 2026, we are looking at:

• Carbon Fuel Levy: Increasing to 19c/L for petrol and 23c/L for diesel.

• General Fuel Levy & RAF: While there is often pressure to freeze these, inflation-linked adjustments are expected to add another 21c/L to the total.

Estimated April 2026 prices

Based on current under-recovery data and the upcoming tax increases, here is our predictive model for the price adjustments effective Wednesday, 1 April 2026: