Ghosn may be gone, but Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi is on the rise

Martin Pretorius

Much has been said about the sudden arrest of the Carlos Ghosn (CEO and Chairman of the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance) in November 2018, with conspiracy theories and accusations flying in all directions, but there’s no doubt that his leadership has enabled the Alliance to ascend to global sales leadership.

For the first decade of the 21^st century, the tussle for leadership in the global passenger vehicle market has revolved around three manufacturer groups: General Motors, Toyota and Volkswagen have been battling each other to sell the most passenger vehicles. But things have changed quite a bit since then, because General Motors faced bankruptcy and Volkswagen had to deal with their own Dieselgate scandal – and these factors all affected global vehicle sales.

Alliance on the rise

The biggest upset has however been the steady and stealthy rise of the Renault-Nissan Alliance, formed in 1999. At that stage, Nissan was struggling to recover after the Japanese market’s crash earlier in the decade, which enabled the much-smaller Renault to acquire a 36.8% stake in Nissan. Pretty soon, the newly-formed Alliance started sharing platforms, achieving amazing economies of scale, and embarking on a massive expansion process. Current brands in the Alliance includes Renault, Nissan, Datsun, Infiniti, Mitsubishi, Dacia, and Lada.

This expansion really showed its full effect in 2017, when the Alliance took the top spot in global sales for the first time, partly bolstered by their acquisition of a controlling stake in Mitsubishi Motors in 2016. Meanwhile, Volkswagen was reeling in the aftermath of their diesel emissions scandal, and General Motors was busy divesting itself of its multitude of international subsidiaries, leaving the Alliance to scoop up the spoils.

2018 Results maintain this momentum

The 2017 result was more than just a flash in the pan, though, as the Alliance's recently-released results for 2018 places them at the top of the sales charts yet again. Volkswagen isn’t too far behind, especially since they’ve also posted record sales for 2018, but even their impressive figure of almost 10.6 million passenger- and light commercial vehicles lags behind the Alliance’s 10.76 million sales. The Germans cannot be too happy about coming second again...

Toyota again ended up in third place, with their total sales of 10.59 million including heavy vehicles (which means that their passenger vehicle sales will have been quite a bit lower). General Motors are still to announce their 2018 figures, but following their sale of Opel and widespread global divestment, they’re only expected to reach around 8 million total sales for a fourth position. How the mighty have fallen...

Honourable mention must also go to Hyundai (who includes Kia in their international sales figures), which snatched the fifth position with a group record of 7.4 million vehicles. They’re showing strong growth, but there’s still a lot of catching up to do before they will start threatening the top-3.

Upsetting the apple cart

It’s fair to assume that the tussle for the leading position will intensify in 2019, but the fight for the top spot will most likely remain between the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance and the VW Group for the time being. It still remains to be seen how Ghosn’s departure will affect the Alliance’s future plans, but according to all the parties involved, Ghosn’s absence will not substantially alter their strategy. 

Things might change from 2020, however, as Volkswagen is expected to commence a massive, worldwide roll-out of new, electrified vehicles – something the Alliance has been dabbling in only localised success up till now. Meanwhile, a new product offensive from Toyota’s side will pose a strong challenge to the leaders in the medium term, and may again see them regain some ground. For the time being, it’s probably safe to say that the top 3 positions will remain with these established players.