Combustion engines regain popularity as EV doubts deepen

According to the latest Mobility Consumer Index from global professional services firm EY (Ernst & Young), concerns about affordability, policy reversals, and widespread uncertainty over charging infrastructure are causing global consumers to put the brakes on their electrification plans.

The report reveals a dramatic shift in buyer intent: 50% of car buyers worldwide now expect their next vehicle purchase, whether new or used, to be a model with a combustion engine. This marks a substantial 13-percentage-point increase from the previous year, signalling a profound reassessment of the viability of pure battery-electric vehicles (BEVs).

Conversely, the global preference for a BEV has dropped to just 14%—a 10-point year-on-year decline—with interest in hybrid models also dipping slightly, suggesting that consumers are seeking immediate and familiar solutions to their mobility needs.

Policy rollbacks and pricing drive the global shift

EY attributes this global 'ICE resurgence' to a combination of factors, many of which mirror local concerns for the South African market:

1. Policy reassessment: Major markets, including the US and the European Union, are reconsidering or diluting strict EV phase-out deadlines and targets amid market pressures and cost-of-living crises.

2. Cost anxiety: The high upfront price of BEVs compared to comparable petrol or diesel models remains the single most significant deterrent.

3. Infrastructure scepticism: Range anxiety and a perceived lack of adequate charging infrastructure continue to erode consumer confidence, a factor cited by nearly three in ten prospective buyers globally.

South Africa was ahead of the curve

South Africa’s unique automotive landscape, the EY report provides powerful justification for existing scepticism regarding full EV adoption:

1. The looming shadow of loadshedding

While high running costs are the biggest pro-EV argument globally, the risk to charging reliability in South Africa remains paramount. Surveys confirm that the possibility of future load shedding would impact the decision to choose a BEV for almost three-quarters of South African respondents. The national power grid’s stability is a unique local barrier that instantly magnifies global concerns about unreliable infrastructure.

2. Cost barrier vs. Import duties

The high upfront cost, identified as a significant global deterrent, is particularly pronounced in South Africa. EVs currently attract a significantly higher import duty (25%) compared to ICE vehicles (18%). This tax structure inflates the purchase price of electric models, often placing them far out of reach for the typical South African new vehicle buyer, for whom affordability remains the dominant purchasing factor.

3. Infrastructure gap and driving demands

The lack of an extensive charging network—which is often concentrated in metropolitan and affluent suburbs—presents a genuine problem for drivers who regularly undertake long-distance travel or whose motoring needs require more rugged, off-road-capable vehicles. Global studies indicate that while confidence in charging is building in developed markets, in South Africa, infrastructure issues and a desire for cars with towing and off-road capability (sought by 70% of local potential buyers) push preference back towards reliable, widely supported combustion models.

Hybrids offer the middle ground

While the intent to buy pure BEVs has dropped internationally, South Africa’s nascent electrified vehicle market shows a nuanced trend: an accelerated jump in New Energy Vehicle (NEV) sales, driven primarily by Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs).

Local data indicate that NEV sales (including BEVs, PHEVs, and HEVs) experienced a surge throughout 2024 and 2025. This growth is predominantly fueled by non-plug-in hybrids, which offer consumers the benefit of fuel savings and lower emissions without the critical dependence on public charging infrastructure or the worry of loadshedding.

This preference for hybrids aligns perfectly with the global sentiment reflected in the EY report: consumers are not abandoning the idea of electrification entirely, but they are opting for transitional technology that negates the risks associated with infrastructure readiness and high cost, making ICE and HEV models the practical choice for the foreseeable future.

For now, the global market, driven by concerns over affordability and reliability, appears to be holding onto the trusty combustion engine, confirming that the EV transition in emerging markets like South Africa will remain a slow and cautious process rather than a sudden leap.