Global growth expected

By Colin Windell

Despite the misgivings about the sometimes mysterious phenomenon of autonomous or self-driving vehicles, the truck industry is expected to embrace the technology with a new estimate predicting 188 000 unit sales in 2022 – from the 343 vehicles last year.

There has been an explosion of interest in self-driving vehicles in recent years, and there is no doubt the commercial availability and adoption of autonomous vehicles will disrupt many industries. One of the industries that has already started feeling the disruption is the trucking sector, the backbone of every supply chain.

The public transport industry is also not far behind as automated shared mobility and rapid transit networks begin to change the landscape of last-mile passenger transportation. By taking more cars off the road, self-driving shuttles and coaches promise cleaner air, reduced noise pollution, and safer areas to walk and ride.

According to a new report from Tractica – a market intelligence firm that focuses on human interaction with technology – worldwide revenue from sales of autonomous trucks and buses reached R966-million in 2017 and the market will continue to develop at a strong pace over the next few years with more competition within the industry, providing significant opportunities to various industry participants and reaching global revenue of R403-billion by the end of 2022. 

During that period, the market intelligence firm forecasts that annual unit sales will increase from approximately 343 vehicles in 2017 to 188 000 units in 2022.

“The potential for autonomous trucks and buses is huge and market growth is accelerating, with news of successful pilot projects coming at an increasing pace,” says research analyst Manoj Sahi. “Considering the next two to three years as a make or break time, several prominent companies are prioritizing investment for large-scale development.”

Tractica’s report, ‘Autonomous Trucks and Buses’, examines the market and technology issues surrounding autonomous trucks and buses and provides 6-year market sizing and forecasts for their shipments and revenue during the period from 2017 through 2022.